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負利率到底是不是你翻身的機會?
發(fā)布日期:2021-07-13 | 發(fā)布者:譯語翻譯公司 | 頁面功能: 【字體:大 中 小】 |
負利率到底是不是你翻身的機會?
Is negative interest rate a chance for you to stand up?
負利率的意思是利率是負的,你去銀行存一筆錢,不但不給你利息,還得收管理費,你肯定納悶了,那我有病啊去存錢,堆家里庫房和床底下不就行了?
Negative interest rate means that the interest rate is negative. You go to the bank to deposit a sum of money. Not only will you not pay you interest, but you will also have to charge management fees. You must be wondering, then if I am sick, go and save money. That's it?
事實上確實也是這樣的,當(dāng)初日本央行宣布進入負利率時代后,日本社會最明顯的反映是保險箱買斷貨,浙江幾個搞保險箱的企業(yè)樂得合不攏嘴。但是有些大戶是跑不掉的,比如保險和養(yǎng)老金,他們就跟幾只大蟲子似的,只能是被迫繼續(xù)混下去。
In fact, this is indeed the case. After the Bank of Japan announced that it had entered the era of negative interest rates, the most obvious reaction in Japanese society was that safes were bought out. Several companies engaged in safes in Zhejiang were happy from ear to ear. But some big players can't escape, such as insurance and pensions, they are like a few big bugs, they can only be forced to continue mixing.
當(dāng)然了,真實操辦負利率,情況還要復(fù)雜那么一丟丟,比如普通老百姓的賬戶,一般你存10000再過一年可能給你10001,象征性地給點。那些大戶,比如有一個億的財富,可能存一年就要變成九千九百萬了。
Of course, if you actually manage negative interest rates, the situation is even more complicated. For example, for ordinary people's accounts, generally you may give you 1,0001 after depositing 10,000 in a year, which is a symbolic point. Those big households, for example, have a fortune of one hundred million, and they may become ninety-nine million in one year.
這里就有個問題,為啥這個世界上會有負利率存在呢?咱們做一個思想實驗,大家就知道了。比如你家有個銀行,市場上到處是一些年收益率高達10%的優(yōu)質(zhì)項目,你最著急的事情是啥? 肯定是趕緊出門貼個海報,上邊寫上“高收益理財產(chǎn)品,先來先得,過期不候”,然后不惜以5%的利率吸儲,然后再去投資賺錢吃差價。
Here is a question, why is there a negative interest rate in this world? Let's do a thought experiment, and everyone will know. For example, if you have a bank, the market is full of high-quality projects with an annual return rate of as high as 10%. What is the most anxious thing for you? I must go out and put up a poster with the words "high-yield wealth management products, first come first served, no expiration", and then they will not hesitate to absorb savings at a 5% interest rate, and then invest to make money and pay the difference.
現(xiàn)在無利不起早的銀行都不想吸儲了,說明啥?說明它手里已經(jīng)沒有可投資的項目了。你把錢存到銀行,明年拿利息,銀行沒有項目可投資,相當(dāng)于那部分利息是它倒貼給你的,它能干?利率和經(jīng)濟增長是強相關(guān)的,經(jīng)濟不好的時候,沒啥可投資項目,利率會非常非常低,如果經(jīng)濟增速跌倒古代那種水平,利率也會變成0。
Now the banks that are unprofitable and can't afford it don't want to absorb deposits anymore. What does it mean? It shows that it has no investment projects in its hands. You deposit the money in the bank and take interest next year. The bank has no projects to invest in. It is equivalent to that part of the interest is paid back to you. Is it capable? Interest rates and economic growth are strongly correlated. When the economy is bad, there are no investment projects, and the interest rate will be very, very low. If the economic growth rate drops to the ancient level, the interest rate will also become zero.
如果還不如古代,比如一個社會出現(xiàn)了急速人口老齡化,那可能就會像日本一樣,或者技術(shù)儲備耗盡,比如歐洲,那就得玩負利率。而且關(guān)于經(jīng)濟,還有一個簡單的邏輯,類似左手右手,你們公司今天生產(chǎn)出兩個手機來,那接下來這段時間一定要賣掉,如果賣不出去,那就是過剩產(chǎn)能,你們廠子可能就要裁員。
If it is not as good as in ancient times, for example, a society is experiencing rapid population aging, it may be like Japan, or its technical reserves may be exhausted, such as Europe, and then it will have to play with negative interest rates. And regarding the economy, there is a simple logic, similar to the left-handed and the right-handed. Your company produces two mobile phones today, so you must sell them during the next period of time. If you can’t sell them, it’s excess production capacity. To lay off staff.
日本央行當(dāng)初搞負利率,有個很大的期望,指望通過負利率搞出2%的通貨膨脹來。說到這里大家可能納悶了,日本人有病吧,竟然愛通脹?當(dāng)然不是了,溫和通貨膨脹并不可怕,至少說明大家有意愿買東西,最怕的事情就是大家誰都不消費,交易停擺了,整個市場死氣沉沉,大家一起完蛋。
The Bank of Japan had a big expectation when it started with negative interest rates. It hoped to bring about 2% inflation through negative interest rates. Speaking of this, everyone may be wondering, are Japanese people sick, and love inflation? Of course not. Mild inflation is not terrible. At least it shows that everyone is willing to buy things. The most feared thing is that no one consumes, the transaction is closed, the whole market is lifeless, and everyone is finished together.
From website:https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/